MacGregorSailors.com

NiceAft wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:30 pm Oh good. Now maybe we can see you.

Starscream wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:47 am

NiceAft wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:36 pm We are planing a trip to Annapolis from Philly. Our plans are for this to happen in mid June. The elephant in the room is the Corona Virus.

As has been pointed out, contact with a variety land obligations, necessities, etc.will create situations where we will be risking contact with the virus. That is what we have to weigh. At this time, it is iffy, but we are attentive to the worsening situation.

This excerpt is the latest I have read in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

“ Here’s the rub, according to experts: Whether emergency measures are stringent (mitigation) or ultra-stringent (suppression), COVID-19 will come roaring back when people resume their normal routines because they still have no immune defense against the new virus.

An influential report published this week by Imperial College London concluded that “the main challenge” of suppression is that it needs “to be maintained — at least intermittently — for as long as the virus is circulating in the human population, or until a vaccine becomes available” in 12 to 18 months.

The Penn scientists, meanwhile, predict that staying home could reduce spread of the virus to near zero by late May. But if the precautions are eased, two to four more rounds of mitigation will be needed until a vaccine is developed and administered to at least 145 million people in the United States.

“If we are lucky, and an effective vaccine is quickly developed, this could happen by the fall of 2021,” they wrote.”

These are good comments.

The thing with this virus is that there are two "good" times to get it: first is before everyone else so that if you need intensive care you can get it, and second is after a viable medicine or vaccine is found. If you get it at the same time as everyone else (in the wave that is inevitable without social distancing) and with no viable or available medicine, you are likely screwed if you have any pre-existing medical problems or are in your senior years.

The current social-distancing campaign is not designed to solve the virus. It is designed to allow time for the healthcare system to prepare and for researchers to develop treatment and/or vaccine. It is unrealistic to think that an effective vaccine is coming before a wave of patients overwhelm healthcare systems worldwide, but if we are lucky an effective treatment may be discovered. It doesn't look like hydrocholoroquine will be the magic pill, but Remdesivir and other anti-virals are giving some hope.

So if you can stay home and put off that trip, I would highly recommend it. Depending on where you live, if you get the virus now (and without social distancing you will) you are in between time 1 when the healthcare system can accommodate you and time 2 when there is an effective and available treatment. Forget the vaccine, that comes way later.

Almost everyone is going to get this virus. But if you can delay WHEN you get it to the point where the healthcare system has ramped up and has a supply of an effective medicine, then it won't be so bad. You don't want it now. Stay home.

BOAT wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:13 pm They found 3 more corona viruses in Oceanside over the weekend so they still will not let us go to the boat ramp. I wish there were no more of them. When are they going to go away?