What constitutes a Bahamas Weather Window?

[Starscream]

Hi folks,

Looking for some Macknowledge from the group: This time next year, if all goes well, we'll be in the FLA Keys near Angelfish Creek waiting for a weather window to cross the gulfstream. I'm trying to figure out what constitutes a legitmate weather window for the 26X.

Most redditors and boat forums say don't cross if there's any North component to the wind. Ok...makes sense, I'm very aware of what wind-over-current can do to the waves. We have about a 1 knot westerly current in our "lake" with only a few miles of fetch, and in an east wind the waves are steep, closely spaced, and remarkably hard on the boat.

Tons of questions for locals or experienced MacPilots:
*does that mean that an E wind is OK and an ENE wind is not? How much does the wind speed affect this?
*How long does it take for the gulf stream to "lay down" after a North-component wind?
*Is 10 to 15 knots direct from the East, for a long period of time, considered a weather window? Obv we'd prefer a west-component wind but that's unlikely.

I know it's best to start early so as to arrive in the daylight, but I'm not opposed to either waiting outside bimini (out of the gulfstream) or even trying the approach in the dark, as we have good charts and we can do rudders up, centerboard 1ft, and kicker motor drawing less than the hull depth. We'll be sharing skipper duties 3 ways so fatigue should be manageable.

Here's a big question: does anyone see a "weather window" for the crossing in the data below? The windier conditions on the Sunday & Monday morning will have a lasting effect, but how long does it really last? Friday-Saturday-Sunday-Monday at end of the foreacst are obv out, but would anyone consider attempting a passage in the last Tuesday conditions: ENE at about 18mph if it holds for a few days after? Suicide?

[krum]

I'll throw my 2 cents out there. With a decreasing wind on the first Tuesday anytime from noon to evening to depart, leaving later if my intention is to sail all the way will result in a longer commute. Rain not a problem, helps in getting the salt off the boat. Motoring across is the fastest way, so later in the 3 day bracket is OK, but be across before wind veers to N again/ LET us know when and from where your leaving, you may have some buddy boats wanting to go with you.

[krum]

Pardon my ignorance but Really nice graph you have there. How can I get one?

[Starscream]

Pardon my ignorance but Really nice graph you have there. How can I get one?

www.wunderground.com

[Starscream]

I'll throw my 2 cents out there. With a decreasing wind on the first Tuesday anytime from noon to evening to depart, leaving later if my intention is to sail all the way will result in a longer commute. Rain not a problem, helps in getting the salt off the boat. Motoring across is the fastest way, so later in the 3 day bracket is OK, but be across before wind veers to N again/ LET us know when and from where your leaving, you may have some buddy boats wanting to go with you.

Any fear of being bashed by the gulfstream? I don't think it would be possible to sail on any day other than Wednesday, as the gulfstream would keep our nose clocked much farther south than our track.

[krum]

When I looked at the wind chart there has been an eastern component for at least a couple days, my first thought was leave on tues evening when things should be calmed down more. But noon seemed a good compromise. Since there is nothing set in stone, stick your nose into the gulf stream and see if its tolerable for you. You can always turn around and leave later. Only make decisions for your boat. Everyone has their own tolerance level.

[NiceAft]

I really do not have much knowledge about the Key's as a launching point, but I do recall that many have left from the Dade Marina in South Miami. If that is considered the Key's, then never mind.

This is from 2017.
viewtopic.php?p=324127&hilit=south+dade#p324127

[dlandersson]

What kind of commute are you looking at? Sail? 6 knots? WOT? That's going to have a bearing on what is an acceptable "weather window"

[NiceAft]

It's about a 70 mile trip. At 6 knots, that's over 10 hours. Even with acceptable weather, when you hit the Gulf Stream, it gets rough. I imagine that one would try to go faster; maybe 8 knots. that would cut off about two hours on the water and (depending if you have two 12Gal tanks) still allow you to carry one 20L Jerry can. But I know only what I have read over the years. Chinook will have the answers to most questions.

[Starscream]

The idea would be to cruise at 6kn or so, and get the jib up to motorsail if possible. I doubt conditions will allow us to run WOT or even close to it. OtOH if we get dead calm conditions we're going full throttle the whole way across the Gulfstream and will do the sailing later once we get out of it, wind permitting.

We'll carry 18 gallons in the main tanks and probably 10 more in two 5 gallon Jerry cans.

Anyone know what the Gulfstream is like in a due east wind of 10 knots? 15 knots?

I'm curious to know how fast the waves respond to calming winds. On our lake, it takes just a few minutes to calm down or fire up, but I'm sure the ocean is different.

[NiceAft]

Reach out to Chinook.

[dlandersson]

Not gonna lie, I'm a bit envious.

The idea would be to cruise at 6kn or so, and get the jib up to motorsail if possible. I doubt conditions will allow us to run WOT or even close to it. OtOH if we get dead calm conditions we're going full throttle the whole way across the Gulfstream and will do the sailing later once we get out of it, wind permitting.

We'll carry 18 gallons in the main tanks and probably 10 more in two 5 gallon Jerry cans.

Anyone know what the Gulfstream is like in a due east wind of 10 knots? 15 knots?

I'm curious to know how fast the waves respond to calming winds. On our lake, it takes just a few minutes to calm down or fire up, but I'm sure the ocean is different.

[Starscream]

Not gonna lie, I'm a bit envious.

Lol, it's a lot of work and a lot of stress and a lot of $ too. Of course it can be done on a budget but for my first big trip I'll err on the side of having too much gear.

I ended up buying the PowerSurvivor 40e watermaker when it went on a flash sale at Defender, and the CDN dollar was still not too bad, so that was a win. Big bucks, but it also fits in with future cruising plans. It fits perfectly under the port bench.

I have to install the new 220W solar panel. That's a lot more complicated than I was thinking because my cockpit enclosure goes right to the back end of the boat, combined with the kicker motor doesn't provide a good mounting spot for an arch.

The network of electronics is up and running including dual GPS sources and AIS transmitter. Charts are up to date so that's checked off the list.

We're going to go with our current toilet setup, with an 18 gal holding tank that requires pumpout. We'll use shore-based facilities and a toilet bucket and sawdust for the most part.

I bought an EPIRB as well, and registered it. Just have to mount it in a logical location. Will also get an AIS crew locator beacon just because. I decided against a harness system because of the capsize risk of a trailer-sailer. I'd rather be free-floating with a beacon than harnessed to my lifelines under the water.

Food, tools, toys, clothes, swim gear, all to be determined.

The weather window looks like it held, and today would be a good day to cross. Leave right now: wind gains a north component tomorrow morning at 8am ish. We'd arrive at 2 or 3 am and decide whether we want to try the channel in the dark or not.

I'm still reserving the right to bail on the trip...but my boys are very insisent.

[OverEasy]

Hi StarScream!

Let us all know how the crossing went!!!!!


Best Regards,
Over Easy

[Starscream]

Hi StarScream!

Let us all know how the crossing went!!!!!


Best Regards,
Over Easy

Oh I will, but it's gonna be next year Still in the planning phase: watching weather in Miami during this time to try to get a feel for what's in store. Never been on the ocean and the gulfstream thing worries me a lot.